Heavy rainfall triggered by Cyclone Midhili earlier this month has caused extensive damage to Aman rice and other crops across various parts of Bangladesh. As farmers struggle to recover from those losses, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has warned of two to three more low-pressure systems likely to form this month, one of which could intensify into a cyclone. The possibility of further heavy rainfall has sparked renewed concern among farmers.
Farmers fear that new low-pressure systems could lead to prolonged waterlogging in fields, triggering disease outbreaks in crops and damaging winter seedlings. Many expressed that without timely government support, quality seeds, and accurate weather forecasts, recovery from the damage would be extremely difficult.
According to the BMD, two to three new low-pressure areas may form over the Bay of Bengal in November, with one having the potential to develop into a cyclone. Meteorologist Md. Mominul Islam said rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than normal between November and January, with two to four low-pressure systems possibly forming in the Bay during this period, two of which could intensify into cyclones.
The Ministry of Agriculture reported that storms and rain between Thursday and Sunday affected nearly 26,000 hectares of cropland in 16 districts of Rajshahi and Rangpur divisions. Among these, Aman paddy sustained the most severe damage on about 21,000 hectares, while vegetables were damaged on 1,600 hectares, onions on 552 hectares, and mustard on 1,348 hectares.
Data from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) shows that Aman rice was cultivated on 5.7 million hectares of land this year, with only 176,000 hectares harvested so far. The remaining crops are mostly mature but now face lodging and grain loss due to flooding.
Dr. Md. Rafiqul Islam, Director of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), said that when mature rice plants lodge due to untimely rain, it can severely reduce yields. “If the rice is not fully mature, the grains will become sterile. If it’s ripe, rats and other pests may destroy it, and the quality will deteriorate,” he explained.
Field Director of the Department of Agriculture, Obaidur Rahman Mondol, said initial estimates show around 11,000 hectares of rice fields affected. “The total extent of the damage is not yet known, but yield losses could range from 5 to 25 percent in affected areas,” he added.
Potato growers are also facing renewed distress. Despite high yields earlier this year, poor market prices left many in debt. Now, the fresh spell of rain threatens early potato plantations. Many farmers are digging up their seed potatoes to save them from rotting, while others have already lost their seeds. The DAE reports that early potatoes were planted on around 23,000 hectares so far, but many farmers are now reconsidering further cultivation.
Professor Abu Noman Faruq Ahmed of Sher-e-Bangla Agricultural University emphasized the importance of delivering timely weather forecasts to farmers to mitigate losses.
Agricultural economist Dr. Jahangir Alam noted that while vegetable crops can be quickly replanted after damage, potato cultivation may face delays due to the wet conditions.
Abdur Rahman, a farmer from Tanore in Rajshahi, lamented, “Year after year, these irregular rains and storms have become the new normal. We no longer know when to plant or how to save our crops.”
Climate scientist Mostofa Kamal Polash from the University of Saskatchewan in Canada explained that with every 1°C rise in global temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7 percent more moisture. “This excess humidity is fueling today’s unusually heavy rainfall. Climate change has also made cyclones and depressions slower-moving, causing them to linger longer over land and intensify damage,” he said.
